Swing Voters

Swing Nation
Anna Greenberg and David Walker

US Action / US Action Education Fund

"This survey reflects the views of the “swingiest” of voters in the country—the voters likely to decide the outcome of the 2006 election cycle—in a mood demanding fundamental change in the direction of the country."

Executive Summary Swing voters in swing districts and swing states overwhelmingly support a plan to invest more in clean energy, affordable health care for all, and education when it is paid for by rolling back tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy. This support will be strongest and best survive attacks when it includes measures to increase government accountability and when the tax cut rollback leaves enough funds to reduce the deficit. This survey, conducted on the behalf of US Action and the US Action Education Fund, reflects the views of the “swingiest” of voters in the country—the voters likely to decide the outcome of the 2006 election cycle—in a mood demanding fundamental change in the direction of the country. Their current political disposition suggests both intense anger at the ruling class in Washington coupled with, and related to, a broad sense of economic insecurity and inequity. These voters embrace an agenda of change, an agenda that invests in the future and focuses on improving lives of average people, not subsidizing corporate special interests and the wealthy. The agenda’s focus on improving education (including child development, preschool, public schools and college aid) expanding affordable health care and addressing energy independence drive support for the agenda. These voters support paying for these investments by rolling back the Administration’s tax cuts for the wealthy and big corporations. Importantly, however, these swing voters hold concerns about government, particularly the current size of the deficit and accountability. Thus swing voters’ support of an investment agenda is strongest when it includes measures to increase government accountability and reduce the deficit. Methodology Between May 20 and May 25, 2006, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner interviewed 613 swing likely voters. For the purposes of this survey, swing voters are defined as voters who are self-ascribed Independent or lean-Independent or Democrats and Republicans who do not support the Democratic or Republican candidate (respectively) in a named trial heat. The survey geography was limited to swing congressional districts and swing Senate states. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percent. This survey limits research to swing voters of a geography including eight states with highly competitive Senate elections this fall as well as 66 congressional districts. The states, defined as Lean Takeover, Toss-up, or Narrow Advantage Incumbent Party by The Rothenberg Political Report as of early April, 2006, include Pennsylvania, Montana, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Ohio, Missouri, and Minnesota, as well as Tennessee. Congressional districts must have been considered at least “in play” by either Stuart Rothenberg, Larry Sabato, or Charlie Cook. The states and congressional districts (ranked based on compilation scores from Rothenberg, Sabato, and Cook) are listed below. Swing States: Pennsylvania, Montana, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Ohio, Missouri, Minnesota and Tennessee Swing Districts: IA 1, OH 6, CO7, AZ8, OH18, TX22, NM1, PA6, IL8, IN9, IN8, CT2, LA3, CT4, GA8, IL6, WA8, GA12, FL22, CA50, VT-at large, IA3, MN6, PA8, WI8, NC11, TX17, WA2, CO3, KY4, SC5, NY29, IN2, NV2, CO4, CT5, LA7, NC8, FL9, OH13, OH15, AZ1, OH1, KY2, MN2, NH2, VA2, KY3, PA7, PA10, CA11, NY20, NHY1, NY1, UT2, KS3, NV3, TN4, OH5, IN7, NJ7, FL8, NY19, ND at-large, and SD at-large

Key Findings It is almost impossible to overestimate the anger of swing voters. 73 percent say the country is on the wrong track, 66 percent disapprove of the performance of George Bush and nearly half (49 percent) strongly disapprove. By nearly a 2:1 margin, voters describe the economy in negative terms; nearly one third struggle to make ends meet. Politically, the swing vote swings against the Republicans. In named trial heats, these swing voters prefer Democratic candidates for Congress 45 - 28 percent over the Republicans; the Senate race, influenced disproportionately by Republican travails in Ohio and Pennsylvania, looks even worse for the incumbent party (53 - 31 percent). Swing voters embrace an agenda that invests more money in new clean energy, affordable health care for all and strengthening education with these investments paid for by eliminating recently passed tax cuts for corporations and people making over $200,000 a year. But swing voters also make plain their concerns about the deficit and government accountability.

Downloads	Type	Size
Swing Nation (Memo)	PDF Document	3.78 KB
Swing Nation (Survey)	PDF Document	5.56 KB
Swing Nation (Graphs)	PDF Document	37.24 KB