Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Swing Voters






Swing Nation
Anna Greenberg and David Walker

US Action / US Action Education Fund










"This survey reflects the views of the “swingiest” of
voters in the country—the voters likely to decide the outcome of
the 2006 election cycle—in a mood demanding fundamental change in
the direction of the country."





















Executive Summary



Swing voters in swing districts and swing states overwhelmingly
support a plan to invest more in clean energy, affordable health
care for all, and education when it is paid for by rolling back tax
cuts for corporations and the wealthy. This support will be
strongest and best survive attacks when it includes measures to
increase government accountability and when the tax cut rollback
leaves enough funds to reduce the deficit.



This survey, conducted on the behalf of US Action and the US Action
Education Fund, reflects the views of the “swingiest” of voters
in the country—the voters likely to decide the outcome of the 2006
election cycle—in a mood demanding fundamental change in the
direction of the country. Their current political disposition
suggests both intense anger at the ruling class in Washington
coupled with, and related to, a broad sense of economic insecurity
and inequity.



These voters embrace an agenda of change, an agenda that invests in
the future and focuses on improving lives of average people, not
subsidizing corporate special interests and the wealthy. The
agenda’s focus on improving education (including child
development, preschool, public schools and college aid) expanding
affordable health care and addressing energy independence drive
support for the agenda. These voters support paying for these
investments by rolling back the Administration’s tax cuts for the
wealthy and big corporations.



Importantly, however, these swing voters hold concerns about
government, particularly the current size of the deficit and
accountability. Thus swing voters’ support of an investment agenda
is strongest when it includes measures to increase government
accountability and reduce the deficit.



Methodology



Between May 20 and May 25, 2006, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
interviewed 613 swing likely voters. For the purposes of this
survey, swing voters are defined as voters who are self-ascribed
Independent or lean-Independent or Democrats and Republicans who do
not support the Democratic or Republican candidate (respectively) in
a named trial heat. The survey geography was limited to swing
congressional districts and swing Senate states. The survey carries
a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percent.



This survey limits research to swing voters of a geography including
eight states with highly competitive Senate elections this fall as
well as 66 congressional districts. The states, defined as Lean
Takeover, Toss-up, or Narrow Advantage Incumbent Party by The
Rothenberg Political Report as of early April, 2006, include
Pennsylvania, Montana, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Ohio, Missouri, and
Minnesota, as well as Tennessee. Congressional districts must have
been considered at least “in play” by either Stuart Rothenberg,
Larry Sabato, or Charlie Cook.



The states and congressional districts (ranked based on compilation
scores from Rothenberg, Sabato, and Cook) are listed below.







  • Swing States:
    Pennsylvania, Montana, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Ohio, Missouri,
    Minnesota and Tennessee









  • Swing Districts: IA 1,
    OH 6, CO7, AZ8, OH18, TX22, NM1, PA6, IL8, IN9, IN8, CT2, LA3,
    CT4, GA8, IL6, WA8, GA12, FL22, CA50, VT-at large, IA3, MN6,
    PA8, WI8, NC11, TX17, WA2, CO3, KY4, SC5, NY29, IN2, NV2, CO4,
    CT5, LA7, NC8, FL9, OH13, OH15, AZ1, OH1, KY2, MN2, NH2, VA2,
    KY3, PA7, PA10, CA11, NY20, NHY1, NY1, UT2, KS3, NV3, TN4, OH5,
    IN7, NJ7, FL8, NY19, ND at-large, and SD at-large












Key Findings










  • It is almost impossible to overestimate the anger of swing
    voters. 73 percent say the country is on the wrong track, 66
    percent disapprove of the performance of George Bush and nearly
    half (49 percent) strongly disapprove. By nearly a 2:1 margin,
    voters describe the economy in negative terms; nearly one third
    struggle to make ends meet.

  • Politically, the swing vote swings against the Republicans. In
    named trial heats, these swing voters prefer Democratic
    candidates for Congress 45 - 28 percent over the Republicans;
    the Senate race, influenced disproportionately by Republican
    travails in Ohio and Pennsylvania, looks even worse for the
    incumbent party (53 - 31 percent).

  • Swing voters embrace an agenda that invests more money in new
    clean energy, affordable health care for all and strengthening
    education with these investments paid for by eliminating
    recently passed tax cuts for corporations and people making over
    $200,000 a year. But swing voters also make plain their concerns
    about the deficit and government accountability.








































Downloads






Type






Size




Swing
Nation (Memo)
PDF Document 3.78 KB

Swing
Nation (Survey)
PDF Document 5.56 KB

Swing
Nation (Graphs)
PDF Document 37.24 KB


















Monday, February 20, 2006

Rep. Tom Feeney

From BradBlog.com

Looks like our old friend, the indefatigably corrupt Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL), is making news again.

St. Petersberg Times takes a front page look at the "allegations pil[ing] up" against Feeney. Here's some highlights:
Three members of Congress went on a golfing junket to Scotland with lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Two of them are under investigation.The third is Rep. Tom Feeney of Florida....Feeney, 47, has tried to move past the allegations but, in typical fashion, has shown little regret or caution.He kept patronizing Abramoff's Washington restaurant, Signatures, long after others stopped. He defended former majority leader Tom DeLay even after the Texas congressman was indicted. He let a private group pay for his trip to China last month, even though many in Congress are avoiding such travel because of bad publicity over questionable trips....Feeney, usually one of the most accessible of the state's congressional delegation, refused to answer questions. His staff described questions into his relationship as a "fishing expedition" and said he has done nothing wrong.So will Feeney disclose who paid for that trip to China last month, in which he visited the Chinese Space Agency and called for more cooperation with them? Perhaps he should, considering that NASA, where his wife also works, is in Feeney's district. Even more notably, Feeney spent years as the general counsel and registered lobbyist for the firm Yang Enterprises, Inc. -- which harbored an illegal Chinese alien eventually found guilty of espionage charges related to sending military missile guidance chips to China -- a firm that currently has lucrative contracts with NASA.Full disclosure on this matter would seem to be particularly important, given the revelation of Feeney's lies regarding his continuing relationship with the Yangs and their company.On a related point, here's an unfortunate little tidbit from the article:
Feeney...has been infatuated with politics since he dressed up as his childhood hero Richard Nixon in a mock grade school electionThe list of allegations against Feeney continues in the article, along with some ink for Clint Curtis' run for Congress against him:
Feeney was immediately taken with DeLay, to whom Feeney sometimes is compared, and voted with him almost all the time. Later, Feeney became a prominent defender of DeLay, giving $5,000 to his legal defense and supporting a Republican move to allow him to keep his leadership post if indicted....He received $5,000 from former Rep. "Duke" Cunningham's PAC before Cunningham resigned last year amid a bribery scandal."My concern about him is that he seems to view the rules are optional," said Melanie Sloan, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics, a group that has primarily criticized Republicans. "Rules are there for a reason."In September, Feeney was named one of "the 13 most corrupt members of Congress" by Sloan's group. The Congressional Accountability Project demanded that the House ethics panel investigate Feeney and others for their ties to Abramoff."No one likes being attacked but he still continues with his daily routine," said Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite, a Brooksville Republican who served in the Florida Legislature with Feeney. "This hasn't changed him at all."Feeney did not face opposition in 2004 but this year already has two opponents, veterinarian Andy Michaud, a Democrat, and computer programmer Clint Curtis, a lifelong Republican turned Democrat. Both Curtis and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee question Feeney's ethics.Here's a complete list of Reps who received money from Duke Cunningham. Feeney is among those accepting the most, but has not returned the money at this time.Hat-tip to Jesselee from Stakeholder, who has more on the St. Pete Times article.Clint Curtis' campaign website, where he needs much financial and logistical support if he's to have a chance of taking on Feeney and the Florida Republican Machine is right here.



For more info on The BRAD BLOG's continuing investigative series onThe Clint Curtis/Tom Feeney/Yang Enterprises Vote-Rigging Scandal series, please see:
http://www.bradblog.com/ClintCurtis.htm

Sunday, February 19, 2006

Miami's Cubans Rethink GOP

Miami's Cubans Rethink GOP
Great story here:
At least one influential Cuban, Pepe Hernandez, president of the Cuban American National Foundation, said it might be time for the Cubans to do the unthinkable -- reconsider their unwavering loyalty to Republican candidates."This community must face the realization that politicians, especially national politicians, come here to Miami when they need our votes and forget their promises," he said. "President Bush came here and said he would review this policy, and nothing has happened. Cuban voters will be looking into this reality a little bit when they cast their votes."Well, Mr. Hernandez, the Democrats are more than willing to welcome you into our party.


As Luis Navarro and others concluded in the Coronado Project, "Developing a stronger relationship between Hispanics and the Democratic Party can lead to the creation of a new Democratic majority."

Thursday, February 16, 2006

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